The third week of college football is upon us, and it’s time to get your bets in. Here are some nuggets to help you along the way.
The college football picks is a weekly column that provides insight on the best bets for the upcoming week in college football.
This season, totals are continuing to move towards the under. Overall, the under is 92-64-3 (.590), with FBS-versus-FBS games scoring 56-36-3, Power 5 games 32-18-2, and ranked-versus-ranked games 7-0.
Caesars Sportsbook provides all odds, which are subject to change.
Saturday
Noon ET, No. 3 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-22, 61.5).
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Following six consecutive ATS defeats against non-conference opponents, Nebraska has covered three straight non-conference games. Outside of Big Ten play, the Cornhuskers have been a double-digit favorite in all three of their previous covers (two vs the MAC, one vs FCS).
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Oklahoma finished the season with an 8-0 record and a 7-1 ATS record before losing to Tulane in the season opener. Last week, the Sooners beat FCS Western Carolina 76-0 as 52.5-point favorites to make it 10 consecutive victories going back to last season (8-2 ATS).
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Oklahoma has gone 8-4 in its past 12 games, including three in a row, with the over.
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In Nebraska’s past 10 games versus ranked opponents, the over is 8-2, including 5-2 under Scott Frost. In Nebraska’s past 10 games, though, the under is 7-2-1.
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Since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the favored has covered four of the five prior games with a spread of 20 points or more. In the five games, the average victory margin was 42.4 points.
Noon ET on ABC, Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 24 Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 56.5).
2 Related
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In its past 12 games as an underdog, Michigan State is 3-9 ATS.
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Since 2015, Michigan State is 6-16 ATS in non-conference games.
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In its past five games as a favorite, Miami is 1-4 ATS.
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In the all-time series versus Michigan State, Miami is 4-0. In 1989, the most recent conference took place.
On ESPN at Noon ET, the No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats (-4, 50) face the Indiana Hoosiers.
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Cincinnati has covered five of its past six road games.
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Under Luke Fickell, Cincinnati is 12-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 6-2 ATS in its past eight such games.
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Indiana has won eight of its previous 10 games as a favorite and seven of its past eight games at home.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-13.5, 57.5) take on the Buffalo Bulls at Noon ET on ESPN2.
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In Coastal Carolina’s past seven games, the over is 6-1, including four consecutive.
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Since the beginning of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone 9-3-2 against the spread. Over that time, the Chanticleers have covered by more than 10 points per game, behind just Iowa (12.8).
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Chalk it up to ESPN.
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Since 2019, Coastal Carolina is 9-2 ATS on the road.
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Buffalo is 10-4-1 ATS as a home underdog in its past 15 games, including five consecutive covers. The last time Buffalo was a home underdog was in 2019, when previous head coach Lance Leipold was still in charge.
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This season, double-digit home underdogs are 4-1-1 ATS.
No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies (-3, 50.5), Noon ET vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
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Under Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech is 4-11-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3. (since 2016).
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Since 2017, West Virginia is 11-3-2 ATS as a home favorite, including a 4-0-2 ATS record under Neal Brown.
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Since 1987, Virginia Tech has covered 15 of the previous 20 matches, including three in a row. The most recent matchup took place in 2017, with No. 21 Virginia Tech topping No. 22 West Virginia by five points. In a 34-21 victory, the Hokies covered the spread.
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In the past 20 seasons, unranked teams favored by three or fewer points against AP top 15 opponents have gone 8-18-2 against the spread.
2:30 ET: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 58.5).
Stanford Steve and The Bear discuss Clay Helton’s firing and what it means for USC. What does Ohio State’s future hold, and can the Buckeyes improve their defense? There’s also a preview of this week’s games, as well as a lot more. Listen!
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Under Brohm, Purdue is 15-5 ATS as an underdog, regardless of location.
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Purdue has won three consecutive games going back to 2012.
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Since the start of last season, Notre Dame has failed to cover three consecutive games as a favorite and is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
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Notre Dame is laying the fewest points as a ranking team against an unranked opponent in South Bend since they were 6-point favorites against USC in October 2015. The Fighting Irish won by a score of 41-31.
3:30 ET, No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5, 58.5) takes on No. 11 Florida Gators.
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Dan Mullen is 0-10 versus Nick Saban in consecutive games, but he has covered four of the past six, including two straight. The lone meeting with Mullen at Florida was a 52-46 defeat as a 16.5-point underdog in the SEC championship game last season (the other nine were with Mississippi State).
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After all seven prior meetings between Mullen and Saban went under, the over has struck in three consecutive.
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Over the past 20 seasons, Florida is 31-14-4 ATS versus AP top 10 teams. Only Clemson (23-9-1 ATS) has a higher cover percentage in that time frame (min. 10 games).
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In its past 15 games as a double-digit favorite, Alabama is 11-4 ATS.
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Alabama is favored for the 83rd time in a row, the longest current winning run in the FBS.
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Since 2011, the over has struck in five consecutive meetings between Alabama and Florida.
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Since 2000, an AP top 15 team has been a 14-point or greater underdog at home for the fourth time. All four games were played against the country’s top-ranked squad at the time.
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Florida has only been a double-digit home underdog while ranked once since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. In November 1993, the No. 7 Gators were 10.5-point underdogs against No. 1 Florida State. In a 33-21 defeat, Florida failed to cover the spread.
3:30 ET, Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-24.5, 61).
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Tulsa has won nine consecutive games against ranked opponents, which is the longest current run in the FBS. Iowa has the second-longest streak (6).
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Since 1995, Tulsa is 3-11 ATS against AP top 10 teams.
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Tulsa is 6-0 ATS on the road since the start of last season, the most ATS wins without a loss in the FBS over that time period.
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Ohio State has lost three consecutive home games as a favorite and is 1-5 ATS in its past six games against non-conference opponents.
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Back in June, C.J. Stroud’s Heisman Trophy odds were 40-1. (Caesars Sportsbook). Stroud is currently 10-1, tied for third shortest with Spencer Rattler of Oklahoma. Troy Smith was Ohio State’s most recent Heisman Trophy winner (2006).
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Since 2015, teams favored by 24 points or more after losing to an AP top 5 team have gone 2-15 against the spread.
3:30 ET: Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-22.5, 56.5).
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3:30 ET on ABC, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers (-28.5, 52).
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Following a 19-5 ATS run from the middle of the 2018 season to the 2019 CFP National Championship, Clemson is 5-10 ATS in its past 15 games.
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Since 2015, Clemson is 5-0-1 ATS versus Georgia Tech. During that time, the Tigers have been favored by more than 18 points per game and have covered by more than 12 points per game.
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In its past 10 games against ranked opponents, Georgia Tech is 2-7-1 against the spread.
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Since 2015, Georgia Tech is 2-9-1 ATS against AP top 10 teams, the lowest such cover percentage in FBS (min. 10 games).
7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, No. 22 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6, 53).
Bet, co-hosted by Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum, is accessible on the ESPN App and ESPN’s social media channels on YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter for live and on-demand watching. Watch
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Auburn is 2-0 ATS this season under new head coach Bryan Harsin, with both games being favorites. Harsin had a 6-4 record as a Boise State underdog.
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Under James Franklin, the over is 16-6-3 in Penn State games versus ranked opponents (since 2014).
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As a favorite, Penn State has covered three consecutive games.
On ESPN, the No. 19 Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5, 51) face the No. 23 BYU Cougars at 10:15 ET.
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Under Herm Edwards, Arizona State is 5-12 ATS as a favorite (since 2018).
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When Arizona State plays a ranked opponent under Edwards, the under is 8-2.
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In the all-time series, Arizona State leads 20-7. This will be the first match between the two teams since BYU’s victory in 1998.
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After starting 0-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under Kalani Sitake, BYU has covered three of its past four games as a home underdog.
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In five consecutive BYU games, the total has been under.
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